Canola Oil Crop Outlook

The oil crop outlook examines supply, use, prices, and trade for oil crops (primarily soybeans and products), including supply and demand prospects in major importing and exporting countries. Includes information on cottonseed, peanuts, sunflowerseed, tropical oils, corn oil, and animal fats.

This month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture published Crop Production—2009 Summary, which raised the 2009 soybean production estimate by 42 million bushels to 3.361 million. The bumper crop was a result of record harvested acreage (76.4 million acres) and a record yield of 44 bushels per acre.

Lower Production Tightens Ending Stocks Outlook for Other Oilseeds
Despite higher than average yields for other oilseeds, reduced planted and harvested area kept their 2009 production below last year’s levels. Final estimates for other oilseeds released this month varied only slightly from previous estimates. All the forecasts of 2009/10 ending stocks for sunflowerseed, canola, peanuts, cottonseed, flaxseed, and safflowerseed are below last year’s levels. In some cases, such as cottonseed, available supplies are beginning to limit the quantity of seed that can be crushed even though crushing incentives are favorable.

Although the area planted to canola was down 18 percent in 2009 (to 827,000 acres), a nearly ideal growing season was remarkably beneficial for yields. Ample summer moisture kept the canola crop in excellent condition and a warm fall aided harvesting. The final yield estimate (1,811 pounds per acre) is 12 percent above the previous record and based largely on strong yields in northeastern North Dakota.

Combined with a record high stock carryover, the large domestic crop has sharply slowed imports of canola seed from Canada. In the first half of 2009/10, U.S. canola imports were less than half of the 2008/09 pace. But imports will have to accelerate in the coming months if U.S. crushing plants are to keep operating at capacity. USDA forecasts 2009/10 imports of canola seed at 1.4 billion pounds, down from 1.82 billion in 2008/09. Domestic crushers are expected to use 2.67 billion pounds this season, which is about even with 2008/09 use.

Flaxseed production in 2009 was 7.4 million bushels, up 30 percent from 2008. Low prices for the crop last spring trimmed the area planted to 317,000 acres, but a record yield helped to boost final production. Flaxseed prices slumped last fall as production in Canada (the global leader) increased and export prospects became unclear.

International trade stalled after the discovery of an unapproved genetically modified (GM) flax variety in Canadian shipments to the European Union and Japan. For the United States, the improved domestic crop is forecast to reduce 2009/10 imports to 3.7 million bushels from 4.8 million the previous year. U.S. flaxseed exports may benefit if Canadian exporters do not quickly find a way to address importers’ GM testing requirements. Exports are forecast to increase 2 million bushels for 2009/10 to 2.4 million bushels. Flaxseed prices, which currently range near $8 per bushel, would be well below last year’s 2008/09 average of $12.70 per bushel.

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